The leading emerging market economies will lead the list of top 10 economies in the world by 2030 with Turkey ranking fifth. The tremendous change in the list will likely be fueled by a growing young population and expanding middle class in these economies.
Turkey will surpass Germany, Russia and Japan to become the fifth largest economy in the world by 2030, while China will unsurprisingly emerge as the world’s number one economic power by 2020, according to U.K.-based multinational bank Standard Chartered Plc’s long-term forecasts.
The projection foresees a major shake-up of the world’s current economic order, envisioning seven emerging markets taking over the top 10. The U.K., France and Italy are nowhere to be seen in the select 10.
Using purchasing power parity exchange rates and nominal gross domestic product (GDP), Standard Chartered economists have predicted that India will comfortably take over the U.S. to grab second place, while Indonesia will break into the top 5, just above Turkey by 2030.
“India will likely be the main mover, with its trend growth accelerating to 7.8% by the 2020s partly due to ongoing reforms, including the introduction of a national goods and services tax (GST) and the Indian Bankruptcy Code (IBC),” the report said.
Asia — led by none other than China — will power global growth, and its share of global GDP will match that of the euro area and the U.S. combined, to reach 35% by 2030, the economists project. China will remain no. 1 in the next decade, but its growth will slow to 5% by 2030 as part of the natural slowdown due to the economy’s size.
The evolution of global GDP rankings reflects the rise of emerging markets, particularly in Asia.